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Trump in action! First, he said before the G20 summit he is actually content with the current situation in the trade dispute with China and does not even know if he wants an agreement and after the food with President Xi Jinping they told the world that it would be truce for at least the next 90 days in the trade war. The market responded positively to that and after the last few weeks of haircuts, the leading indices again showed hefty premiums. Of course, market participants and the world are hoping that the China-US trade dispute will be resolved in the next 90 days and a viable future-oriented solution will be found. But you never know Trump?!? Another chunk is the Climate Change Conference in Poland this week, even though Brazil and the US have turned their backs on the Paris Agreement, there is still hope that the rest of the world will come up with a sensible agreement that will sustain CO2 emissions and, perhaps, Brazil and the US gets back into the boat. Whether one believes that man is entirely to blame for climate change, or that man is not at fault, or takes the middle ground, and believes that the earth has repeatedly climatic changes but man has accelerated the change, under Stroke would be a low CO2 emissions in any case to advocate, so the gas is not exactly healthy and a burning of our fossil fuels anyway borders on madness, who thinks about what else they offer for medicine, industry etc.
All in all, a turbulent start to the “most contemplative” month of the year, for the economy is also showing a positive image, the barometer for the trade, the rush on Black Friday, shows absolute good weather, let’s see how the year ends!
After massive haircuts on the US exchanges, the major indices such as Dow Jones and S & P500 have already lost all profits of the year and the Nasdaq Composite is also in correction mode. But do not panic, after the course since 2010, it is only understandable that there is a correction, this is also called profit taking. In our opinion, we are still in a bull market, which means we continue to believe the markets are going up. This correction is now the last good entry opportunity to participate in the upcoming win. According to our assessment, the markets will stabilize again after the congressional elections and once again show us the usual picture of rising prices. Right now everything has come together, rising key interest rates, the crisis in Saudi Arabia, the account reversals between Italy and the EU and of course the “extraordinary” policy of Mr. Trump, that in this situation investors secure their profits is only understandable, but as I said for all who are not there yet, now it’s time !!!
In the last two days, we saw massive sell-offs on the US stock exchanges and also globally, investors were driven by further expected interest rate increases of the Fed and the still ongoing trade dispute. There is good news about the second, China and the US want to get together for talks at the G20 summit. The situation is different with regard to the projects of the Fed, which would like to carry out another rate hike in 2018 and three next year. Many investors therefore fled to the Savemarket – the government bonds what drove the interest on just that even further. The Dow Jones lost almost 2000 points in the last week, but as serious as it sounds, we are still in a normal correction (down to a minus of around 10%) and are still a long way from a crash. However, this development shows how fragile the market is still after the economic and financial crisis of 2008, even 10 years later. A countermovement would be desirable and many investors see this current time as an excellent starting momentum!
and again Trump is in the middle of a fool. With his testimony that he trusts Putin and Russia, even though the American intelligence agencies are certain that Moscow has to deal with spy attacks on the democratic election campaign, he once again snubs his own country even though he always says “America first”. Even members of their own party, the Republicans shake after the statements of their president only the head. The stock exchanges barely react, apparently the statements of the head of state are no longer important, far more attention is paid to economic data and quarterly figures!
After much back-and-forth and mutual refusal, the summit meeting of Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un will be full on 12 June in Singapore. What results we can expect or hope to achieve is not clear. If the US and South Korea want to completely rid the North of nuclear weapons, this would mean that Kim Jong Un is completely out of power, a rather unlikely scenario. The situation is similar with the reunification of the two states, also a disempowerment of the Kim family would be the consequence, and therefore not assuming that Kim Jong Un agrees. What remains are approaches and expansions of diplomacy to take on the one hand South Korea the fear of a military strike from North Korea and perhaps to relax the sanctions against the North, so that the people feel a little better.
The markets are currently reacting to the political events rather little, the market participants are focused on the economic data and the results of companies. We have over 25,000 points in the Dow Jones, the situation has eased a bit on the oil market, the barrel currently costs around $ 65.
Trump and its exit from Iran nuclear agreements caused violent reactions politically as well as on the stock exchanges, the oil price stands on a multi-year high. The US stock markets also quoted this decision with significant volatility and a trend upwards. Politically, Trump is facing significant headwinds from the EU as well as from China, who continue to cling to this agreement, although it is not optimal. The consequences for European companies of reinstating US sanctions will become apparent in the coming weeks and months. Also, the increased tariffs for steel and aluminum are not yet off the table for the EU, continue to try to negotiate the European Union and to find a solution for the new situation with Iran.
The US President also suffered another small blow to North Korea, the summit on June 12, 2018 wobbles, according that Kim Jong-un is not as clear as it sounded a few days ago with the conditions of the United States. Let’s hope that at least the door remains open for further negotiations between North and South Korea and the US. Of course, this back and forth does not leave the stock markets cold either.
The economic data from the US is still stable and good, so there are no problems from the side, the geopolitical situation will probably lead to more activities on the world exchanges this summer than usual in other summers.
Throughout the quarterly results of the companies are good and above expectations, but the outlook given by the companies often does not meet the requirements of Wall Street. As a result, we are seeing strong volatility on the US stock exchanges, which is compounded by rising interest rates on government bonds. Many fearful investors move from the stock market into, if one believes, more stable bond markets. All the turmoil about Facebook and stolen user data, as well as the allegations against Amazon also do not really boost the confidence of market participants, and as if that was not enough, there is still a president Trump who often speaks and tweets faster than he thinks. He usually has to row back or send in a 6-hour attack on Syria, which raises more questions and stirs up conflict than it resolves.
Looking at the US economy as a whole, the fundamentals are excellent, of course, the curve will gradually flatten, but the trend continues to point higher, though it also makes punitive tariffs and other trade barriers harder and not easier for the US, and last but not least it falls back on the consumer, but especially in America provides for over 85% of GDP. Again, we can only align Mr. Trump – think before, then act !!!
Three months ago, verbal atrocities flew from Washington to Pyongyang and vice versa, but at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, there was already a rapprochement between North and South Korea and now we may have a summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong. It would certainly be a step in the right direction for the world if the two conflicting parties could approach each other. But as soon as there is light at the end of the tunnel, Trump will certainly find a switch to turn it off, as now with his punitive tariffs. Again, a populist action without thinking about the consequences for their own country, a number of companies in the US have with their suppliers long-term contracts that are not easy terminable, these companies must now take the extra effort for the punitive tariffs and of course they promptly to the consumer. The then remains less in your pocket and thus the economy is weakened, but as far as Trump has not thought, as always in his projects. The self-proclaimed billionaire has just 3 houses in New York and about 250-400 million dollars, he is not poor but not Bill Gates. The neat houses with his name on it are all fake, he just sold the license in his name. His last big real project was a casino in Atlantic City called Taj Mahal which he fell terribly on account of incompetence and went bankrupt, the injection of $ 100 million from his father’s cannot help in this case.
But the American people recognize more and more which whiskers they have made President here and even the Midterm elections in the fall will show that the Americans do not agree with the current policy, never had a president over 130 pending lawsuits and what in the case of the Russian affair everything will come to light, will also show up. The chance of a second term for Donald Trump as president is currently nearing zero, we can only hope that Trump in the next 2.5 years took the US not further to the sideline.
Markets continue to show stable upward trends, market participants have probably resigned to Washington and focus more on economic data, which continues to look bright, more than 200,000 new jobs created last month, and the unemployment rate continues to decline as GDP is above expectations and the US economy continues to strengthen.
After a long tremble Trump can now record his first success, the US Senate agreed to the tax reform with 51 to 49 votes – but scarce. This reform promises a significant tax relief for companies and a moderate relief for the private sector. This should actually boost the markets, but investors are probably not yet convinced, and of course a lot had already been priced in advance. In any case, after just under a year in office, President Trump can at least make that election promise come true, but in many other areas he has made it a bit more difficult for the American at the global gaming table. Resignation from trade agreements and climate resolutions, leaving UNESCO, threats against North Korea, leaving the global refugee program and, of course, his immigration policy make it difficult for diplomats in the background to keep the US in the game. For the image of America, all these decisions are rather damaging and also the place as a predator of the world could be endangered with these – sometimes thoughtless – actions. Let’s hope that the man with the strange hairstyle does not do any more damage and tacitly disappears in 3 years, the Americans can take a first step in this direction next year when representatives House and one-third of the Senate are re-elected.