Meanwhile, the vaccination campaign in Europe has also gained momentum, but the USA is still some way ahead of the EU and this is also reflected in the recovery in the number of infections. The economic data are also pointing upwards again, the US economy is starting to grow again and the labor market is noticeably improving.
All of this is of course also evident on the stock exchanges and the upswing that we see on the marketplaces in summer 2020 is now being confirmed by the economy, so confidence in the markets continues to rise and a stable upward trend will be the result. At the moment there is only a slow upward movement or sideways movements in between, but we are convinced that this should be seen more as a buy signal and that the market will turn into a steeper curve as soon as the real economy continues to pick up.
Although Israel is also a model country when it comes to corona vaccination, it is precisely the conflict in the Middle East that is also depressing the mood a little and making investors wait, even the apparent conclusion of a new nuclear agreement with Iran cannot hide this. All in all, however, we continue to assume that the markets will rise, with the calming of the Israel conflict, the courage of investors will return and who knows, maybe this conflict was the spark for a final and long-term solution in the Middle East, keyword two states Solution!
In the first few days, the new President of the USA Joe Biden showed that his idea of the highest office in the state is very different from that of his predecessor. The re-entry into the Paris climate agreement, as well as the willingness to talk to Iran, testify to the will for diplomatic solutions. But one should as far as possible avoid portraying Biden as a weakling, which he impressively refuted at the meeting with Chinese envoys and the swipe at Putin. All in all, a new, better wind is blowing in the White House and it remains to be seen how this fresh wind will affect the rest of the world.
The COVID crisis also seems to be much better under control in the USA than in the EU, a comprehensive vaccination program ensures that over 140 million vaccine doses have now been administered (US population approx. 330 million) in the EU 27, only 68 million vaccine doses were administered infected with around 450 million inhabitants.
The US economy is recovering noticeably, unemployment figures are falling and GDP is already turning positive again. Of course, there is still a certain uncertainty that the current crisis can be seen globally and not only by the USA, but basically the United States seems to be on the right track, which is also reflected in the markets on the stock exchanges. Although the increase is very leisurely, it is continuous, but it is to be expected that the increases will become steeper again as soon as the pandemic loses momentum worldwide.
Crude oil hovered around $ 60 for a moment and after the sharp spikes in the high of the pandemic, precious metal prices fell again, gold at $ 1670 and silver at $ 25
The new president in the USA begins to keep his promises right at the beginning, this is also necessary to unite the people, because according to the impeachment proceedings against Trump again ended with an acquittal, the danger of the ex-president is not yet averted. Furthermore, he still enjoys the popularity of some supporters and this has to be convinced again by the next elections in 2022 (midterm) that a populist is not suitable to lead a country like the USA.
When it comes to Corona, the US is also way ahead of Europe, over 10% of the US population is already vaccinated, the EU is just 3% – a debacle for such a large economy!
The stock exchanges continue to move upwards, but rather slowly with sideways movements that can be seen again and again, everything is a little bit to wait and see how the pandemic develops after the start of the vaccination campaign. Our forecast is still positive and we expect further increases in the equity markets.
The new year is one month old and a lot has happened, the new president has been sworn in and has kept some of his promises straight away. Of course, it remains to be seen how he will develop in his office, but the first steps were already marked by the old man.
As expected, the Fed is leaving key interest rates at a low level, but the labor market is slowly recovering in the USA. The weekly new unemployment reports are mostly below expectations. Covid cases are also falling, albeit at a high level.
The market situation on the major stock exchanges could be described as a sideways movement, which is not surprising given the current situation, new president, Covid pandemic and of course it remains to be seen how the vaccination situation will develop., Once again the EU is lagging behind .
Despite all the adversities, we expect further increases in the markets and further all-time highs for 2021!
The election in the USA is defeated and you could say the right one has won, at least that’s how the stock markets feel and after a long sideways movement, they headed for the summit again.
Of course, what has contributed far more to the new highs since the slump in February is the expected vaccination against the COVID-19 virus. Furthermore, Corona has the world in a stranglehold and with it the economy, thanks to the vaccination that has now been announced, it will be possible to end the pandemic.
For the economy this means to concentrate on business as usual and we are already seeing rising share prices in the ailing sectors such as tourism and airlines. With every further partial success against the pandemic, the economy and stock exchange prices will continue to recover. An unequivocal buy signal for us !!!
Again to my introductory sentence, even if Trump is fighting with his hands and feet against the election defeat, he will have to sleep in bed in Florida again from January and no longer in the White House in the presidential apartment.
The election to the EU Parliament has failed and, as expected, the old-established parties of the Conservatives and Social Democrats have lost. The right-wing parties were able to grow, but voters were even more attached to the Greens and Liberals. The far more important decisions will be made in the coming days and weeks. A new Commission President must be appointed, as well as a new President-in-Office and a new ECB chief, all key positions in the EU’s role.
Another big chunk that threatens to collapse on the markets is the US-China trade dispute. Following further punitive tariffs on both sides, President Trump Huawei has now been blacklisted for cooperation, including a ban on cooperating with US corporations Huawei same. Furthermore, the US is convinced that the Chinese network company is spying for the Chinese government. This move has turned a trade dispute into a technology war, putting pressure on technology companies plus attachments worldwide.
It is to be hoped that a solution to the current situation will soon be found, because fundamental as well as economic data would actually indicate a further upswing, were it not for these quarrels.